============ OGRE/GEV list, May 7th (Last: May 4th) ============= ===== The Timeline is falling. From: Eric Jome ===== The Cub, don't leave home without it. From: garth.getgen@genie.com ------------------------------ From: Eric Jome Subject: The Timeline is falling. > 2005: (EC adds parts of eastern europe.) This will happen before Y2K > and be considerably broader. if it happens at all. the governments in power in the various states are facing serious opposition and a lack of real popular support. i doubt you will find 1 in 10 who want to give up their currency or suffer major hits to their socialist programs to meet artificial economic measures... at least Britain may fall through. this would suit the timeline if i remember correctly, as they become a major landing spot for Combine invasion and influence later on (?) > 2006/2008: (Space Colonies) Highly unlikely before 2030, regardless of > "Freedom". this only suffers from a lack of profitability. no one except die hard scientists is willing to fund an open ended mission with no concrete benefits. esp in an era of downsized space development. i doubt we will see serious space presence in my lifetime (and barring stray buses, ebola, and rabid MIBs, i should make it to 2050 at least). > 2015: (Britain recoils from the PanE and reestablishes the Mark). I > don't see how this can happen any later than the defeat of Labour in > 2007. what makes you think that Labor is so pro-Euro? indeed, looking at the labor situation across the prospective members any "workers party" should be fighting tooth and nail to stop integration. the unemployment in Europe is incredible for "successful, western economies". if anyone pulls out after 20 years, it will be Germany, who will be tired of draggin the rest of the limping economies along... > 2060: (Production of first independent robot.) Sorry, but there is > already a device on its way to Mars that will have to navigate its own > way around the landscape. (If the airbags work!) there is a great difference between the state of the art in reactive planning AI today and real thinking. it is possible today to build diagnostic or expert systems more accurate than humans... even ones which are quite small. also, it is possible to build robotic machines that are nearly independent... in a limited or controlled environment such as the ocean or on city streets. these two areas and "grown" artificial life projects suggest to me that were funding available, we could see things that mimiced simple life forms (except perhaps reproduction) before 2002. HAL is not as difficult to believe as a trip to Jupiter... > 2070: (Start of WW-III) My bet is now 2010. Almost everybody reading > this will be there at the beginning of the end. erk, Henry! come on. WWIII and world war in general is gone... a thing of the ugly imperial past. wars today are fought with tariffs and terrorists, no tanks and megatons. anyone capable of large scale war today has too much to lose to start one... and this situation will not change in fifty years let alone 12. look at it this way, small but militant states are too outmoded in tech to compete with powerful, wealthy western powers. but these are not willing to go to war unprovoked... hard to sell war to voters. personally, i worry a lot more about terrorists nukes than foreign invasion... > 2105: (The fall of man.) Huh? Unless something very nasty happens to > More's law, computers will be a billion times faster than the Pentum Pro > by 2060. Just how smart do they gotta get to replace humanity? -HJC] it is overly generous to call Moores theory a "law"... doubling of speed cannot go on indefinitely... esp. with the limits of our current knowledge. of course, if you can say "biphase carbide" you can say "deuotronic chips" (trek ref). and it isnt speed that determins smarts; no matter how fast you cannot parse enough chess boards to play perfectly. what a machine must do is effectively model a living system to replace life. and if any machine could model life, then it would just be life on a different "platform". the question remains not can we make AI or AL but why would you? the part of Ogre i always had trouble stomaching was what general would field a 100 ton, 3 story monster which could onee day decide it would rather plant a garden than risk its hide in a nuclear wasteland? and how could you ever take over any sizable amount of terrain or assets firing nuclear bombs? and lets see how your ogre does against lone low tech fanatics carrying nukes they can shove down gun ports... esp when they hide in the mountainous jungle or underwater? eric ----- [Have you heard of IR sensors? (Disturbance in air patterns noted. Probable cause is respiration of large mammal. AP attack advised.) And when has Labour ever cared about UNemployment? Lowering wages to maximise use of labourers doesn't leave much for dues. -HJC] ------------------------------ From: garth.getgen@genie.com Subject: The Cub, don't leave home without it. Henry, Thinking about your "Cub" GEV and perhaps it's a vehicle-mounted mortar. And that means there should be a leg-infantry version which either get a limited amount of ammo (5?) and/or can't fire if moving. Unfortunately, there just isn't much room in the stats (from what I can tell) to have a tracked-vehicle version based on the Light Tank. I can't think of a good historical excuse for it not being invented. Garth L. Getgen ----- [Is the reason that the missile tank is so bulky is to make room for the ammo? How about a Lt Missile Tank like so: Atk 1/2, D2, M3 as tank, one load of 3/4 attack, that cannot be used on the same fire phase as the pop-gun. About 3 VPs or so, right? (Anybody else following the tank with the pop-up gun thread in The Combat Connection?) -HJC] Henry J. Cobb hcobb@io.com http://www.io.com/~hcobb All OGRE-related items Copyright (c) 1997, by Steve Jackson Games.